Peak oil
![]() |
Contents |
[edit] Introduction
The term 'peak oil' denotes the moment in time when domestic or global oil production peaks and will forever afterwards go into decline. Peak oil is therefore the point of maximum oil production.
[edit] Predictions
One of the earliest peak oil predictions came in 1956 from American Shell Oil geologist, M. King Hubbert, who pointed out that US oil production would peak around 1970. He was later proved correct by both the National Academy of Sciences and the Energy Information Agency (EIA). Hubbert subsequently generated much concern when he predicted a global peak oil date of 1975. However, this proved to be incorrect, as global oil production rose steadily to 2015.
Ever since Hubbert, there has been much research and debate and many government studies about when peak oil will occur: the International Energy Agency (IEA) for instance, gave its peak oil prediction as 2008 (ie the peak of conventional oil production). So far, numerous predictions have all turned out to be inaccurate, as oil production has continued to grow.
[edit] New technology
Peak oil depends not only on oil reserves but also available prices and technology. One reason it has proved so difficult to predict peak oil is because it is hard to know exactly what the available oil reserves are, given there are conventional sources of production (eg crude oil) and unconventional (shale oil). Twenty years ago, for example, it would have been very difficult to factor in the oil that might have been available from fracking which has allowed some regions such as North Dakota, US, to enjoy an oil production boom.
Given the movement towards alternative energy sources, it may be more relevant to talk of peak oil in terms of demand rather than of supply. Some oil analysts have argued that peak oil will be brought about by reduced demand, driven by increasingly expensive oil. Others have predicted that oil will become so expensive that fewer will have the means to pay for it.
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki
Featured articles and news
Retrofit 25 – What's Stopping Us?
Exhibition Opens at The Building Centre.
Types of work to existing buildings
A simple circular economy wiki breakdown with further links.
A threat to the creativity that makes London special.
How can digital twins boost profitability within construction?
The smart construction dashboard, as-built data and site changes forming an accurate digital twin.
Unlocking surplus public defence land and more to speed up the delivery of housing.
The Planning and Infrastructure Bill
An outline of the bill with a mix of reactions on potential impacts from IHBC, CIEEM, CIC, ACE and EIC.
Farnborough College Unveils its Half-house for Sustainable Construction Training.
Spring Statement 2025 with reactions from industry
Confirming previously announced funding, and welfare changes amid adjusted growth forecast.
Scottish Government responds to Grenfell report
As fund for unsafe cladding assessments is launched.
CLC and BSR process map for HRB approvals
One of the initial outputs of their weekly BSR meetings.
Architects Academy at an insulation manufacturing facility
Programme of technical engagement for aspiring designers.
Building Safety Levy technical consultation response
Details of the planned levy now due in 2026.
Great British Energy install solar on school and NHS sites
200 schools and 200 NHS sites to get solar systems, as first project of the newly formed government initiative.
600 million for 60,000 more skilled construction workers
Announced by Treasury ahead of the Spring Statement.
The restoration of the novelist’s birthplace in Eastwood.
Life Critical Fire Safety External Wall System LCFS EWS
Breaking down what is meant by this now often used term.
PAC report on the Remediation of Dangerous Cladding
Recommendations on workforce, transparency, support, insurance, funding, fraud and mismanagement.
New towns, expanded settlements and housing delivery
Modular inquiry asks if new towns and expanded settlements are an effective means of delivering housing.